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In perhaps the most decisive week of Liverpool’s season, the Reds will travel to Portugal where they’ll meet Benfica —— who, having already slain one European giant in Ajax, will look to continue an improbable run through the highest competition in European football by slaying another behemoth, this time of the English variety. And while much has been made about yet another disappointing exit for an Ajax team many were pegging as dark horses —- sparingly little has been written about Benfica.
And perhaps rightfully so; Liverpool has won 15 of their last 17 games, and while it’s the blistering attack of Salah/Jota and Co. that is grabbing the headlines; it’s been the defensive stability that’s maintained the level of excellence. Over its 11 Premier League games in 2022, Liverpool has conceded more than one xGA just four times; and not once has it yielded more than two xGA in the process. In its two-legged fixture with Inter Milan, Liverpool conceded a combined 0.8 xGA overall. Simply put, you can’t be playing any better than Liverpool has since the dawn of the new year and it has resulted in the club leaping to within a point of Manchester City in the EPL and into the Champions League quarterfinals.
But it’s this very same title race against ManCity that is giving me pause on backing the Reds totally here; because with the two teams scheduled to play one another in a pivotal match this weekend at the Ethiad, concerns about looking ahead are hard to overlook. Beyond that, though Benfica has only lost 2 times in Lisbon all year, and while competition in Portugual fails to compare to England —- I do think we see Benfica hold tight in this game. They’ve illustrated the ability to defend deep in 2 blocks of 4 and attack on the counter effectively, the very same strategy that Watford employed against Liverpool that saw them in on-goal two times.
With that said I think far too much is being made of the weekend’s tie with Manchester City. Jurgen Klopp is amongst the best in the world, and his ability to get the most from his players seems unparalleled. While many are worried about a letdown spot I am not; which is why I’m going to back Liverpool in a pair of ways.
PLAYS:
In a match-up of contrasts both in personality and style —- the fiery Diego Simeone and his pragmatic Athletico Madrid side travel to Manchester to kick a ball around a pitch with Pep Guardiola’s graceful footballing side, Manchester City, in the first leg of the Champions League Quarter-Finals.
To say we have a good idea how this one is to play out on the pitch in terms of style would be to undersell it; it’s not exactly the work of a genius to predict a game with City owning 65% possession, much of it in their opponents final third. Nor is it in any way surprising that Simeone’s Athleti will be content to allow them to do so; defending resolutely and with guile —— ever-lurking for an errant pass or poor decision to trigger the counterattack.
So the question most asked of City since the Guardiola era began will be poised again by Athletico; can you break us down with 10 men behind the ball? And the reality is, few teams in the world are more equipped to hamper the Citizens than Simeone’s lads —— Los Colchoneros conceded only 1.5 xG and two big scoring chances across both legs to City’s neighbors, despite giving up north of 60 percent possession. That victory also extended a positive run of form for Atlético against Premier League sides in continental competitions: across its last seven two-leg ties against English foes, Atlético has advanced in six of them, with last season’s exit against Chelsea the only blemish.
This brings me to my final point, and in reality, it's more of an assertion than it is anything else —— I’m not backing Pep in this spot. With the Liverpool game on the weekend, and with his history of questionable managerial decisions come this time of year, I have serious concerns for Manchester City in this match-up. For all of Pep’s genius, it seems at times he struggles to manage his squad through the tail end of the season —- too often making stunning inclusions/remissions in the biggest moments.
Now of course that analysis had the power of hindsight, but today I’m looking to prove it’s a little foresight too —- so I’m firing up a trifecta of plays for this match.
Plays:
Coochie vs The Bookie | DaCoochieCoo | Substack
Daily Plays and Betting Tips from the Danny Ocean of Sports Handicapping. Click to read Coochie vs The Bookie, by DaCoochieCoo, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.
coochievsbookie.substack.com
Coochie vs The Bookie | DaCoochieCoo | Substack
Daily Plays and Betting Tips from the Danny Ocean of Sports Handicapping. Click to read Coochie vs The Bookie, by DaCoochieCoo, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.
coochievsbookie.substack.com
Benfica vs Liverpool
Liverpool -270 \ Benfica +620 \ Draw +390 \ O/U 3.5
In perhaps the most decisive week of Liverpool’s season, the Reds will travel to Portugal where they’ll meet Benfica —— who, having already slain one European giant in Ajax, will look to continue an improbable run through the highest competition in European football by slaying another behemoth, this time of the English variety. And while much has been made about yet another disappointing exit for an Ajax team many were pegging as dark horses —- sparingly little has been written about Benfica.
And perhaps rightfully so; Liverpool has won 15 of their last 17 games, and while it’s the blistering attack of Salah/Jota and Co. that is grabbing the headlines; it’s been the defensive stability that’s maintained the level of excellence. Over its 11 Premier League games in 2022, Liverpool has conceded more than one xGA just four times; and not once has it yielded more than two xGA in the process. In its two-legged fixture with Inter Milan, Liverpool conceded a combined 0.8 xGA overall. Simply put, you can’t be playing any better than Liverpool has since the dawn of the new year and it has resulted in the club leaping to within a point of Manchester City in the EPL and into the Champions League quarterfinals.
But it’s this very same title race against ManCity that is giving me pause on backing the Reds totally here; because with the two teams scheduled to play one another in a pivotal match this weekend at the Ethiad, concerns about looking ahead are hard to overlook. Beyond that, though Benfica has only lost 2 times in Lisbon all year, and while competition in Portugual fails to compare to England —- I do think we see Benfica hold tight in this game. They’ve illustrated the ability to defend deep in 2 blocks of 4 and attack on the counter effectively, the very same strategy that Watford employed against Liverpool that saw them in on-goal two times.
With that said I think far too much is being made of the weekend’s tie with Manchester City. Jurgen Klopp is amongst the best in the world, and his ability to get the most from his players seems unparalleled. While many are worried about a letdown spot I am not; which is why I’m going to back Liverpool in a pair of ways.
PLAYS:
- Liverpool To Win at Nil (+140)
- Liverpool To Win/Under 3.5 Goals Scored (+113)
Man City vs Athletico Madrid
ManCity -323 \ Athelitco +800 \ O/U 2.5
In a match-up of contrasts both in personality and style —- the fiery Diego Simeone and his pragmatic Athletico Madrid side travel to Manchester to kick a ball around a pitch with Pep Guardiola’s graceful footballing side, Manchester City, in the first leg of the Champions League Quarter-Finals.
To say we have a good idea how this one is to play out on the pitch in terms of style would be to undersell it; it’s not exactly the work of a genius to predict a game with City owning 65% possession, much of it in their opponents final third. Nor is it in any way surprising that Simeone’s Athleti will be content to allow them to do so; defending resolutely and with guile —— ever-lurking for an errant pass or poor decision to trigger the counterattack.
So the question most asked of City since the Guardiola era began will be poised again by Athletico; can you break us down with 10 men behind the ball? And the reality is, few teams in the world are more equipped to hamper the Citizens than Simeone’s lads —— Los Colchoneros conceded only 1.5 xG and two big scoring chances across both legs to City’s neighbors, despite giving up north of 60 percent possession. That victory also extended a positive run of form for Atlético against Premier League sides in continental competitions: across its last seven two-leg ties against English foes, Atlético has advanced in six of them, with last season’s exit against Chelsea the only blemish.
This brings me to my final point, and in reality, it's more of an assertion than it is anything else —— I’m not backing Pep in this spot. With the Liverpool game on the weekend, and with his history of questionable managerial decisions come this time of year, I have serious concerns for Manchester City in this match-up. For all of Pep’s genius, it seems at times he struggles to manage his squad through the tail end of the season —- too often making stunning inclusions/remissions in the biggest moments.
Now of course that analysis had the power of hindsight, but today I’m looking to prove it’s a little foresight too —- so I’m firing up a trifecta of plays for this match.
Plays:
- Athletico +.5 1stH (-112)
- Athletico Bookings Over 2.5 (-117)
- Athletico +1 (+146)
